MSN/BBC NEWS:
O cenário atual no Brasil, que combina início da vacinação com transmissão descontrolada da covid-19, pode tornar o país uma ‘”fábrica” de variantes potencialmente capazes de escapar por completo da eficácia das vacinas. Esta é a avaliação de cientistas britânicos diretamente envolvidos em algumas das principais pesquisas sobre mutações do coronavírus.
Pesquisadores da universidade Imperial College London e da Universidade de Leicester ouvidos pela BBC News Brasil afirmam que lockdowns e outras medidas de contenção são particularmente necessários durante a vacinação de uma população.
Eles explicam que é justamente o contato entre vacinados e variantes que propicia o aparecimento de mutações “superpotentes”, capazes de driblar totalmente a ação do imunizante.
E, no Brasil, há uma combinação explosiva para que isso ocorra: vacinação ainda em ritmo lento, variante com a mutação E484k (que dribla anticorpos) e altas taxas de infecção.
Variante de Manaus pode favorecer mutação antivacina
O maior perigo está no contato da variante de Manaus, apelidada de P.1, com pessoas recém-vacinadas, explica o virologista Julian Tang, da Universidade de Leicester, no Reino Unido.
Segundo ele, ao entrar na célula humana e se deparar com uma quantidade ainda pequena de anticorpos da vacina, a variante, ao se replicar, pode promover mutações mas resistentes a esses anticorpos.
“Se você é vacinado numa segunda-feira, você não está imediatamente protegido. Leva algumas semanas para os anticorpos da vacina aparecerem e você ainda pode se infectar pelo vírus original ou pela variante P.1”, explica Tang.© REUTERS/Diego Vara Brasil bate recordes de mortes em 24 horas – mais de 1,8 mil vítimas de covid-19. Hospitais em Porto Alegre alcançam 100% da ocupação em UTIs.
“Se esses anticorpos da vacina surgem enquanto a infecção está ocorrendo e replicando no seu corpo, o vírus pode se replicar de maneira a evadir o anticorpo que está sendo produzido, num movimento de seleção natural.”
Esse movimento é parte do processo de evolução do vírus, que tenta se adaptar a “adversidades”. A pessoa vacinada, porém infectada, pode passar o vírus mutante adiante se não houver medidas de controle em vigor, como quarentenas, fechamento de comércio e locais de lazer.
O risco de isso acontecer seria menor se a variante de Manaus não estivesse se espalhando pelo país e se as infecções estivessem sob controle. Isso porque a chance de o vírus original conseguir se fixar em grandes quantidades nas células de uma pessoa vacinada é pequena, já que os imunizantes foram produzidos exatamente para impedir a eficácia dessa ligação.
Mas a mutação E484k, presente na variante de Manaus, afeta exatamente o principal ponto de ligação entre o vírus e as células, tornando o “encaixe” mais eficaz e reduzindo a eficácia dos chamados anticorpos neutralizantes.
Pesquisas preliminares apontam redução da eficácia da vacina Oxford-AstraZeneca contra variantes com a mutação E484K e o Instituto Butatan está pesquisando o impacto delas no percentual de proteção da CoronaVac.
“Se há uma replicação descontrolada do vírus, ou seja, transmissão num ambiente sem regras de distanciamento social, lockdown e uso de máscaras, as pessoas suscetíveis vão se misturar com as vacinadas. Sem barreiras, o vírus pode se transmitir de uma população para outra, potencialmente gerando variantes que escapam à vacina”, disse Tang à BBC News Brasil.© REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes Brasil vacinou cerca de 3% da população e ainda negocia vacinas suficientes para atender a todos os habitantes. Em alguns postos de saúde, idosos tiveram que esperar em filas
O professor de Saúde Global Peter Baker, da Imperial College London, também afirma que o contato em larga escala de variantes do coronavírus com pessoas vacinadas gera uma “pressão” biológica para que elas evoluam, criando mutações que driblem melhor os anticorpos.
“Isso vai acontecer principalmente se você tiver uma situação de epidemia de grande porte num país com sucesso moderado de vacinação. Você alcança assim o equilíbrio perfeito entre pessoas imunes e infectadas. E, quando essas populações se misturam, há risco de surgir uma nova variante resistente às vacinas”, disse à BBC News Brasil.
Descontrole da epidemia no Brasil
O Brasil vivencia exatamente essa confluência entre vacinação em estágio precoce e pico de casos de covid-19. O país superou os Estados Unidos no infeliz recorde de infecções em 24 horas.
Dados publicados nesta quinta-feira (24) pela Organização Mundial da Saúde apontam que foram registrados 59,9 mil casos de covid-19 no Brasil no período de 24 horas. Nos EUA, foram 57,8 mil.
O número de mortes diárias também não para de subir e bater recordes. Na quarta (3), foram registradas 1,8 mil mortes num dia – o maior número desde o início da pandemia. Em mais da metade dos estados brasileiros, a ocupação de leitos de UTI supera 80%.© EPA/RAPHAEL ALVES Brasil tem quase 260 mil mortos por covid-19
Diante do colapso dos sistemas de saúde em vários municípios, governadores decretaram lockdown ou medidas de distanciamento social. Apesar do descontrole de infecções, o presidente Jair Bolsonaro declarou mais uma vez ser contra as restrições.
“No que depender de mim nunca teremos lockdown. Nunca, uma política que não deu certo em lugar nenhum do mundo”, afirmou o presidente.
Mas os dados desmentem a fala de Bolsonaro.
No Reino Unido, o lockdown em vigor em todo o país desde o início de janeiro reduziu em dois terços as infecção por covid-19. Em Londres a diminuição foi de 80%, segundo pesquisa da Imperial College London.
“Do ponto de vista científico, fechar fronteiras e implementar quarentenas em casa são eficazes em diminuir a infecções. E há benefícios em reduzir infecções. Você diminui o risco de surgirem variantes, ganha tempo para a campanha de vacinação avançar e para pesquisas concluírem vacinas adaptadas às variantes existentes hoje”, diz o professor Peter Baker.
Variante de Manaus pode dominar infecções no país
Além disso, especialistas alertam que, sem medidas de controle, a variante de Manaus pode acabar substituindo o vírus original e se tornar prevalente em todo o território nacional. A P.1 já circula em pelo menos 10 Estados brasileiros, além de ser responsável por quase a totalidade das infecções atuais na capital do Amazonas.
“Sem medidas de controle, P1 vai rapidamente ser o vírus dominante e gerar ondas epidêmicas significativas”, disse à BBC News Brasil Charlie Whittaker, pesquisador da Imperial College London.© REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino Em Brasília, pessoas fizeram protestos contra lockdown anunciado no final de fevereiro
Um estudo liderado por Whittaker mostrou que a variante de Manaus é entre 1,4 e 2,2 vezes mais transmissível que o vírus original. A pesquisa revela ainda que a P.1 é capaz de evadir o sistema imune de infecções prévias em 25% a 61% dos casos. Ou seja, ela pode provocar reinfecções em indivíduos que já haviam sido contaminados pela covid-19.
E reinfecções são outro ingrediente importante para mutações perigosas, diz Peter Baker, da Imperial College London.
“Quando essas variantes entram em contato com pessoas que já foram infectadas, há uma pressão para que elas mutem mais, encontrem uma maneira de reinfectar pessoas previamente imunizadas”, diz.
“A combinação de uma epidemia prévia com uma nova grande epidemia, em que pessoas que já teriam imunidade são reinfectadas, gera um ambiente propenso a mutações. Achamos que isso é o que aconteceu no contexto brasileiro.”
Aparição de variantes no Brasil gera risco ao mundo todo
Além de já estar se espalhando pelo território brasileiro, a variante de Manaus já foi detectada em 25 países, apesar de várias nações terem cancelado voos para o Brasil e imposto quarentenas e testes de covid-19 a quem desembarcar vindo do país.
Isso revela que o descontrole da doença num país coloca em risco outras nações.
“Se você deixar o Brasil replicar o vírus de maneira descontroladas, essas variantes podem surgir e viajar para qualquer lugar”, diz o virologista Julian Tang, da Universidade de Leicester.
“Se você tem um celeiro de produção de vírus num país, se você não controla a transmissão, vai ter mutação ocorrendo por seleção natural, se essas variantes viajam pelo mundo e algumas delas escapam totalmente ou parcialmente às vacinas, é claro que é um risco.”
Os pesquisadores ouvidos pela BBC News Brasil avaliam que vacinação em massa, combinada com medidas de restrição de contato social, como lockdowns, uso de máscaras e fechamento de comércio são importantes para conter altas taxas de infecções e impedir novas mutações, enquanto a imunização avança.
“Ninguém está seguro enquanto todos não estivermos seguros. E garantir que estamos seguros significa limitar a chance de variantes surgirem. Medidas de controle são úteis para alcançar isso, mas talvez mais importante ainda seja garantir uma estratégia global equitativa de vacinação. Isso significa que nenhum país deve ser deixado para trás”, defende Charlie Whittaker, da universidade Imperial College London.
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